Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 2.117460 2.241698 2.372516 2.521062 2.685721 2.863418 3.070725
2025-06-15 1.949844 2.123530 2.315459 2.545244 2.815554 3.126919 3.517973
2025-06-22 1.809288 2.005820 2.229797 2.507494 2.847763 3.258430 3.803609
2025-06-29 1.698739 1.908403 2.152964 2.464483 2.858744 3.353095 4.041073
2025-07-06 1.603235 1.819848 2.077182 2.412149 2.847475 3.411130 4.228391
2025-07-13 1.561684 1.792219 2.071500 2.443687 2.941810 3.610751 4.628530
2025-07-20 1.529068 1.772469 2.072697 2.481727 3.044788 3.828565 5.081047
2025-07-27 1.501922 1.757207 2.077424 2.522896 3.153013 4.061875 5.589333
2025-08-03 1.455626 1.714734 2.043828 2.508909 3.180610 4.176840 5.920957
2025-08-10 1.412501 1.674117 2.010132 2.491818 3.200957 4.280563 6.246659
2025-08-17 1.368983 1.630990 1.970742 2.463824 3.202009 4.352295 6.524051
2025-08-24 1.328980 1.590837 1.933377 2.436186 3.200795 4.418834 6.800607
2025-08-31 1.299823 1.564646 1.914677 2.435517 3.242688 4.563975 7.265169
2025-09-07 1.280549 1.550924 1.912403 2.458496 3.323127 4.783620 7.932487
2025-09-14 1.243404 1.511519 1.872472 2.422850 3.305902 4.827336 8.223055
2025-09-21 1.206959 1.471889 1.830691 2.382210 3.277425 4.847123 8.462313
2025-09-28 1.169805 1.430196 1.784537 2.332726 3.230924 4.828614 8.605929
2025-10-05 1.159166 1.424775 1.789882 2.362552 3.320013 5.077442 9.485277
2025-10-12 1.150913 1.422261 1.799086 2.398507 3.421928 5.364068 10.565004
2025-10-19 1.143849 1.421066 1.809969 2.437397 3.531753 5.681944 11.868208
2025-10-26 1.122633 1.399106 1.789311 2.424186 3.545964 5.797917 12.583671
2025-11-02 1.101645 1.376895 1.767520 2.408042 3.553470 5.899881 13.295354
2025-11-09 1.078863 1.351534 1.740221 2.381588 3.539820 5.952446 13.853145